Supply and demand, as well as macro factors, are intertwined, leading to a decline in copper prices overnight [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

SMM News on July 15: Overnight LME copper opened at $9,609/mt, touching a low of $9,575/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $9,649/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $9,643.5/mt, down 0.2%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest reached 280,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2508 contract opened at 77,900 yuan/mt, touching a low of 77,810 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then consolidated sideways, rising slightly and reaching a high of 78,160 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 78,020 yuan/mt, down 0.34%. Trading volume reached 31,000 lots, and open interest reached 172,000 lots. On the macro side, Trump stated that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 50 days, a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed, which may affect global oil supply and demand, leading to a sharp drop in international oil prices and bearish copper prices. On the fundamental side, from the supply side, the market sentiment for shipping was high during the day, but as the price spread between futures contracts continued to narrow, suppliers did not continue to lower their quotes. From the demand side, the buying sentiment of downstream players was weaker than at the end of last week, and purchasing enthusiasm pulled back. As of Monday, July 14, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China increased by 3,900 mt WoW to 147,600 mt. Comparing the changes in inventories in various regions with those on last Thursday, except for Shanghai, inventories in other regions generally increased. In terms of prices, Trump once again criticized Powell, stating that interest rates should be 1% or lower, but Fed officials said there was no urgent need for an interest rate cut at present. The US dollar strengthened on Monday, appreciating against other currencies, and copper prices are expected to remain under pressure today.